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the Scoop trading stats
The conviction book: trades filtered to positions of $100+ and excluding sports markets. This strips out the small, for-fun bets and isolates the edge-driven, research-backed trades.
Realized PnL
$14,273
Net of fees
Profit factor
7.12×
Gross gains vs. gross losses
Trade win rate
70.5%
Over 376 trades
Blended ROI
+65.7%
Return on capital deployed
Markets & contracts
19·48,327
Unique markets · Contracts
Swing PnL
$5,684
Strategy-specific return
Average trade outcome
Winner vs. loser expectancy (conviction book)
Avg. winner Avg. loser
Edge summary
What the conviction numbers mean in plain language.
- Brier skill score
- +0.21 unweighted · +0.10 volume-weighted. Positive means these calls beat a naive baseline; higher is better.
- Profit factor
- 7.12× means gross gains are over seven times gross losses once the small, for-fun bets are stripped out.
- Win rate context
- A 70.5% hit rate with average wins of $62.66 against average losses of -$21.02 produces strong positive expectancy on the conviction book.
- Blended ROI
- +65.7% return on capital deployed, roughly double the full book's +32.9%.
Full book vs. directional
Side-by-side comparison. Filtering for conviction trades lifts win rate, profit factor, and ROI across the board.
| Metric | Full book | Conviction ($100+, no sports) |
|---|---|---|
| Trade rows | 2,111 | 376 |
| Unique markets | 92 | 19 |
| Total contracts | 99,690 | 48,327 |
| Total $ volume | $33,470 | $21,721 |
| Total fees | $745 | $403 |
| Realized PnL | $11,007 | $14,273 |
| Gross wins | $18,633 | $16,606 |
| Gross losses | $7,626 | $2,333 |
| Profit factor | 2.44× | 7.12× |
| Trade win rate | 51.0% | 70.5% |
| Avg winning trade | $17.30 | $62.66 |
| Avg losing trade | -$7.58 | -$21.02 |
| Trade win/loss ratio | 2.28× | 2.98× |
| Market win rate | 37.0% | 57.9% |
| Avg winning market | $533.73 | $1,504.20 |
| Avg losing market | -$123.10 | -$284.12 |
| Market win/loss ratio | 4.34× | 5.29× |
| Swing PnL | $5,903 | $5,684 |
| Blended ROI | +32.9% | +65.7% |
Volume-weighted implied probability calibration curve
Conviction book only. Comparing market-implied odds to actual resolution rates by bin.
Click any bar or table row to see the underlying markets.
R = Resolved (held to expiry at 0¢ or 100¢). S = Swing (exited before expiry).
Edge Avg implied Actual rate
| Implied probability bin | N (markets) | R/S | Contracts | Avg implied | Actual rate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-20% | 3 | 3R/0S | 7,500 | 18.0% | 42.9% | +24.9% |
20-30% | 4 | 2R/2S | 11,185 | 24.8% | 81.2% | +56.5% |
30-40% | 4 | 2R/2S | 7,891 | 34.1% | 56.1% | +22.0% |
40-50% | 3 | 3R/0S | 4,873 | 43.0% | 100.0% | +57.0% |
50-60% | 1 | 0R/1S | 1,041 | 58.3% | 37.5% | -20.8% |
60-70% | 1 | 1R/0S | 427 | 67.0% | 100.0% | +33.0% |
70-80% | 2 | 2R/0S | 8,059 | 74.9% | 100.0% | +25.1% |
80-90% | 1 | 1R/0S | 7,351 | 80.1% | 100.0% | +19.9% |
| Total | 19 | 14R/5S | 48,327 |
All positions are on Kalshi. All returns are real. Track live stats at kalshi.com/ideas/profiles/fz2026.