Portfolio
Live & closed markets
All positions are real money on Kalshi. Live contracts update with current market pricing; closed trades reflect realized P&L at resolution.
Live markets
Open Hormuz normalization positions, priced live from Kalshi. The July 1 and July 15 legs settled at $1.00 and have moved to closed markets below. · loading…
Open positionLive
NOStrait of Hormuz: No normalization before August 1, 2026
Contracts
6,960
Avg entry
54.1¢
Market price
—
Unrealized gain (loss)
—
Entered Jun 14 to Jul 3, 2026
Status: Solid unrealized gain. The August 1 contract still offers a wider window than the July dates, and the market is now pricing continued disruption well above the entry level. Added 430 more contracts on July 3 at 77¢ NO as the thesis confirmed.
Implied probability over time
How the No side repriced
Daily No-side implied probability for each Hormuz normalization contract, Apr 14 to Jun 30, 2026. All three drifted toward resolution as transit volumes stayed depressed.
Source: Kalshi daily settlement · No-side implied probability
Closed markets
Resolved trades and realized returns. Tap any column header to sort.
Win / Loss
39W / 57L
Realized P&L
+$17,134
Capital deployed
$44,192
Blended ROI
+38.8%
| World Cup ads: Apple appears | KXWCADS-26JUL19-APPL | NO | 49.6¢ | 100¢ | +$895 | +102% |
| World Cup ads: Gatorade appears | KXWCADS-26JUL19-GATO | NO | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$268 | +49% |
| Hormuz norm before Jul 1 | KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701 | NO | 50.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3,452 | +98% |
| Hormuz norm before Jul 15 | KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260715 | NO | 76.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,268 | +30% |
| Gov shutdown ≥55 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G55 | YES | 22.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3,569 | +313% |
| Hormuz closure before May | KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN-26MAY | YES | 19.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,419 | +388% |
| Gov shutdown ≥60 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G60 | YES | 32.8¢ | ~80¢ | +$2,352 | +142% |
| DHS Fund Apr 1 | KXDHSFUND-26APR01 | NO | 25.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,105 | +294% |
| Hormuz closure before 2027 | KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN | YES | 43.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,002 | +122% |
| Gov shutdown ≥50 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G50 | YES | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,556 | +31% |
| Gov shutdown ≥90 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G90 | NO | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,384 | +24% |
| Hormuz norm before Jun 1 | KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601 | NO | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$406 | +41% |
| Hormuz closure before Aug | KXCLOSEHORMUZ-27JAN-26AUG | YES | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$386 | +134% |
| MLB World Series VE | KXMLBWORLD-26-VE | YES | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$386 | +134% |
| Hormuz norm before May 1 | KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260501 | NO | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | +133% |
| NBA Finals MVP JBRU | KXNBAFINMVP-26-JBRU | YES | 53.4¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | +84% |
| Gov shutdown Jan 31 | KXGOVSHUT-26JAN31 | YES | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | +48% |
| NCAA HP | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR19HPWIS-HP | YES | 21.6¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | +357% |
| Hockey CAN | KXWOMHOCKEY-26FEB20CANFIN-CAN | YES | 56.8¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | +74% |
| Hormuz norm before May 15 | KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515 | YES | 30.0¢ | ~61¢ | +$94 | +99% |
| Gov shutdown ≥45 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G45 | YES | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | +45% |
| NCAA USU | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20USUVILL-USU | NO | 46.1¢ | ~45¢ | +$78 | +18% |
| Samsung strike Jun 1 | KXSAMSUNGSTRIKE-26-JUN01 | NO | 55.5¢ | ~37¢ | +$78 | +14% |
| Gov shutdown ≥70 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G70 | YES | 26.5¢ | ~53¢ | +$72 | +100% |
| NBA NYK | KXNBAGAME-26MAY08NYKPHI-NYK | YES | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | +130% |
| Hormuz weekly <20 transits | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T20 | NO | 30.7¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | +68% |
| Hormuz weekly <25 transits | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T25 | NO | 42.8¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | +35% |
| Hormuz weekly <15 transits | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T15 | NO | 14.9¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | +586% |
| Samsung strike May 22 | KXSAMSUNGSTRIKE-26-MAY22 | NO | 56.3¢ | ~26¢ | +$38 | +31% |
| Hormuz weekly <30 transits | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T30 | NO | 58.3¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | +39% |
| Tariff refund | KXTARIFFREFUND-25-DEC31 | NO | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | +32% |
| NYC min wage | KXNYCMINWAGE-27JAN01 | NO | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | +11% |
| NCAA SCU | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20SCUUK-SCU | YES | 36.3¢ | ~44¢ | +$21 | +6% |
| Netflix movie views >30 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-30 | NO | 30.3¢ | ~61¢ | +$9 | +23% |
| Gas price 2.988 | KXAAAGASW-26MAR02-2.988 | YES | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | +93% |
| Knesset May 30 | KXKNESSET-27-MAY30 | NO | 68.0¢ | ~28¢ | +$2 | +7% |
| TrueV T1236 | KXTRUEV-26MAY19-T1236.13 | YES | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | +1% |
| Hormuz weekly <40 transits | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T40 | NO | 51.0¢ | ~49¢ | +$1 | +4% |
| World Cup ads: Pepsi appears | KXWCADS-26JUL19-PEPS | YES | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | -$671 | -26% |
| World Cup ads: Modelo appears | KXWCADS-26JUL19-MODE | NO | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | -$212 | -100% |
| Hockey SWE | KXWOMHOCKEY-26FEB18USASWE-SWE | YES | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | +0% |
| New Glenn launch | KXNEWGLENN-262-JUN | YES | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | -$1 | -100% |
| NBA MIL | KXNBAGAME-26MAR02BOSMIL-MIL | YES | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | -$1 | -100% |
| Hegseth mention Hormuz | KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR06-HORM | YES | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | -$1 | -100% |
| Gas price 4.510 | KXAAAGASD-26MAY25-4.510 | YES | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | -$1 | -100% |
| Hormuz weekly <50 | KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY17-T50 | YES | 26.0¢ | ~34¢ | -$3 | -38% |
| Netflix movie views >25 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-25 | NO | 34.7¢ | ~68¢ | -$4 | -20% |
| Grammy SOTY | KXGRAMSOTY-68-GOL | YES | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | -$4 | -91% |
| NBA Finals MVP OANU | KXNBAFINMVP-26-OANU | YES | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | -$5 | -100% |
| Knesset Jun 30 | KXKNESSET-27-JUN30 | YES | 84.0¢ | ~60¢ | -$5 | -30% |
| TrueV T1226 | KXTRUEV-26MAY19-T1226.13 | NO | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | -$6 | -100% |
| Netflix TV views >25 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-25 | YES | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | -$6 | -94% |
| Netflix TV views >30 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-30 | YES | 28.5¢ | 0¢ | -$6 | -100% |
| TrueV T1266 | KXTRUEV-26MAY19-T1266.13 | NO | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | -$6 | -4% |
| Netflix movie views >35 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-35 | YES | 44.1¢ | ~48¢ | -$7 | -13% |
| POTUS approval Jan | KXAPRPOTUSEOY-26JAN01-40 | YES | 53.4¢ | 0¢ | -$7 | -100% |
| Netflix movie views >15 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-15 | NO | 25.4¢ | ~62¢ | -$9 | -71% |
| NBA Finals MVP TIE | KXNBAFINMVP-26-TIE | YES | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | -$10 | -100% |
| NCAA MCNS | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR19MCNSVAN-MCNS | YES | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | -$10 | -100% |
| Gov shutdown length 5d | KXGOVSHUTLENGTH-26FEB28-5D | YES | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | -$10 | -100% |
| Knesset May 20 | KXKNESSET-27-MAY20 | YES | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | -$11 | -96% |
| Netflix TV views >21 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-21 | YES | 25.6¢ | ~21¢ | -$11 | -86% |
| NCAA UVA | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20WRSTUVA-UVA | NO | 20.2¢ | ~75¢ | -$12 | -2% |
| Senate TX runoff | KXSENATETXR-26-KP | YES | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | -$12 | -91% |
| LIRR strike May 21 | KXLIRRSTRIKE-26-MAY21 | YES | 38.5¢ | ~51¢ | -$13 | -7% |
| Netflix TV views >18 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-18 | YES | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | -$14 | -72% |
| Netflix movie views >18 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-18 | NO | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | -$15 | -100% |
| Hockey CAN | KXWOHOCKEY-MEN26CGOLD-CAN | YES | 43.7¢ | 0¢ | -$15 | -100% |
| NCAA VILL | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20USUVILL-VILL | NO | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | -$17 | -3% |
| Netflix TV views >15 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-15 | YES | 28.1¢ | ~28¢ | -$21 | -45% |
| NHL PHI | KXNHLGAME-26MAR19PHILA-PHI | YES | 43.8¢ | ~47¢ | -$22 | -2% |
| Knesset Jun 15 | KXKNESSET-27-JUN15 | YES | 55.3¢ | ~38¢ | -$25 | -77% |
| Netflix movie views >21 | KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY18-21 | NO | 26.6¢ | ~72¢ | -$26 | -90% |
| World Cup ENG | KXWCGAME-26JUN17ENGCRO-ENG | NO | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | -$33 | -100% |
| NCAA IOWA | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20IOWACLEM-IOWA | NO | 22.6¢ | ~72¢ | -$41 | -15% |
| Trump approval vote | KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26MAY21 | YES | 24.5¢ | ~17¢ | -$50 | -46% |
| NCAA ALA | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20HOFALA-ALA | NO | 36.6¢ | ~58¢ | -$56 | -16% |
| NCAA HOF | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR20HOFALA-HOF | YES | 44.1¢ | ~52¢ | -$65 | -19% |
| LIRR strike May 24 | KXLIRRSTRIKE-26-MAY24 | NO | 26.9¢ | ~59¢ | -$68 | -53% |
| Gov shutdown ≥65 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G65 | NO | 20.1¢ | 0¢ | -$73 | -100% |
| PPI vs CPI | KXPPIVSCPI-27FEB01-TCPIYOY | NO | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | -$90 | -100% |
| Trump China May 15 | KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15 | NO | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | -$109 | -99% |
| Musk OAI | KXMUSKOAI-26 | YES | 39.5¢ | 0¢ | -$158 | -100% |
| US-Iran agreement | KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL | YES | 29.0¢ | ~18¢ | -$160 | -37% |
| Samsung strike May 25 | KXSAMSUNGSTRIKE-26-MAY25 | NO | 27.7¢ | ~49¢ | -$198 | -41% |
| Hockey SVK | KXWOMHOCKEY-26FEB20USASVK-SVK | YES | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | -$200 | -100% |
| LIRR strike May 19 | KXLIRRSTRIKE-26-MAY19 | NO | 58.3¢ | ~37¢ | -$207 | -34% |
| NCAA SIE | KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR19SIEDUKE-SIE | YES | 20.4¢ | 0¢ | -$210 | -100% |
| WBC DOM | KXWBCGAME-26MAR152000USADOM-DOM | YES | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | -$300 | -100% |
| TrueV T1256 | KXTRUEV-26MAY19-T1256.13 | YES | 37.2¢ | ~34¢ | -$330 | -80% |
| Hockey CAN | KXWOHOCKEY-WOMEN26CGOLD-CAN | YES | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | -$350 | -100% |
| Super Bowl NE | KXSB-26-NE | YES | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | -$400 | -100% |
| Gov shutdown ≥75 days | KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G75 | NO | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | -$461 | -100% |
| NBA series BOS | KXNBASERIES-26PHIBOSR1-BOS | YES | 33.2¢ | 0¢ | -$487 | -100% |
| Trump mention shutdown | KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR01-SHUT | YES | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | -$650 | -100% |
| Hockey USA | KXWOHOCKEY-MEN26CGOLD-USA | NO | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | -$1,000 | -100% |
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