the Scoop trading stats
A transparent view of our Kalshi and prediction-market trading performance as of July 28, 2026. Numbers include realized P&L, volume, win rate, and per-trade expectancy across the full book of every market traded.
Average trade outcome
Winner vs. loser expectancy
Edge summary
What the numbers mean in plain language.
- Profit factor
- 2.44 means gross gains are 2.44× gross losses. Above 2.0 is considered strong for short-term trading.
- Win rate context
- A 51% hit rate combined with average wins of $17.30 and average losses of -$7.58 produces positive expectancy over a large sample.
- Swing trading
- Swing positions contributed +$5,929.76, representing roughly 53% of total realized profit.
- Total trade volume
- $189.5k of notional across 2,929 filled trades and 126 unique markets (May 17, 2025 to July 8, 2026), including market-making and liquidity bot volume alongside directional trades. Total exchange fees paid: $990.54. Contract count excludes sub-cent quoting in penny markets.
Volume-weighted implied probability calibration curve
Comparing market-implied odds to actual resolution rates by bin.
Click any bar or table row to see the underlying markets.
R = Resolved (held to expiry at 0¢ or 100¢). S = Swing (exited before expiry).
| Implied probability bin | N (markets) | R/S | Contracts | Avg implied | Actual rate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-10% | 8 | 8R/0S | 50,992 | 6.2% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
10-20% | 13 | 12R/1S | 9,683 | 18.2% | 34.6% | +16.3% |
20-30% | 22 | 10R/12S | 19,000 | 23.6% | 70.2% | +46.6% |
30-40% | 15 | 7R/8S | 13,638 | 34.2% | 45.7% | +11.5% |
40-50% | 25 | 21R/4S | 16,745 | 44.0% | 68.0% | +24.0% |
50-60% | 17 | 12R/5S | 12,364 | 55.3% | 36.2% | -19.1% |
60-70% | 9 | 8R/1S | 5,921 | 62.5% | 94.2% | +31.7% |
70-80% | 7 | 7R/0S | 14,447 | 74.9% | 99.9% | +25.0% |
80-90% | 7 | 6R/1S | 7,709 | 80.1% | 99.7% | +19.6% |
90-100% | 2 | 2R/0S | 199 | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0% |
| Total | 125 | 93R/32S | 150,698 |
Bin rows are rebuilt directly from the full Kalshi fill export (2,929 fills, 126 tickers, 189,469 contracts). Rows marked with a dash are settled markets whose resolution price has not yet been reconciled against the fill log, so they are excluded from the avg implied, actual rate and edge figures. The open August 1 Hormuz leg is excluded entirely.
All positions are on Kalshi. All returns are real. Track live stats at kalshi.com/ideas/profiles/fz2026.