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the Scoop trading stats
A transparent view of our Kalshi and prediction-market trading performance as of June 1. Numbers include realized P&L, volume, win rate, and per-trade expectancy across the full book of every market traded.
Realized profit
$11,100
As of June 1
Markets & contracts
94·80,196
Unique markets traded · Contracts traded
Total trade volume
$53,300
Inclusive of liquidity bot volume
Profit factor
2.44
Gross gains vs. gross losses
Win rate
51%
Over 2,111 total trades
Swing trading P&L
+$5,929.76
Strategy-specific return
Average trade outcome
Winner vs. loser expectancy
Avg. winner Avg. loser
Edge summary
What the numbers mean in plain language.
- Profit factor
- 2.44 means gross gains are 2.44× gross losses. Above 2.0 is considered strong for short-term trading.
- Win rate context
- A 51% hit rate combined with average wins of $17.30 and average losses of -$7.58 produces positive expectancy over a large sample.
- Swing trading
- Swing positions contributed +$5,929.76, representing roughly 53% of total realized profit.
- Total trade volume
- $53.3k includes market-making and liquidity bot volume in addition to directional trades.
Volume-weighted implied probability calibration curve
Comparing market-implied odds to actual resolution rates by bin.
Click any bar or table row to see the underlying markets.
R = Resolved (held to expiry at 0¢ or 100¢). S = Swing (exited before expiry).
Edge Avg implied Actual rate
| Implied probability bin | N (markets) | R/S | Contracts | Avg implied | Actual rate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-10% | 4 | 4R/0S | 3,457 | 6.2% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
10-20% | 9 | 9R/0S | 9,464 | 18.2% | 34.6% | +16.3% |
20-30% | 21 | 9R/12S | 18,996 | 23.6% | 70.2% | +46.6% |
30-40% | 14 | 6R/8S | 13,589 | 34.2% | 45.7% | +11.5% |
40-50% | 17 | 13R/4S | 12,653 | 43.2% | 63.5% | +20.3% |
50-60% | 12 | 7R/5S | 5,244 | 55.3% | 36.2% | -19.1% |
60-70% | 4 | 3R/1S | 768 | 67.8% | 96.1% | +28.3% |
70-80% | 4 | 4R/0S | 8,196 | 74.9% | 99.9% | +25.0% |
80-90% | 4 | 3R/1S | 7,631 | 80.1% | 99.7% | +19.6% |
90-100% | 1 | 1R/0S | 198 | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0% |
| Total | 90 | 59R/31S | 80,196 |
All positions are on Kalshi. All returns are real. Track live stats at kalshi.com/ideas/profiles/fz2026.