# the Scoop

> Data-driven prediction market research, probability models, and transparent Kalshi trade reasoning — tracked in public.

the Scoop documents real Kalshi prediction-market positions with published reasoning, probability calibration, and full profit-and-loss results. Coverage spans directional trades and an experimental market-making bot.

## Pages

- [Home](/): Overview of the Scoop's prediction market research and live track record.
- [Markets](/markets): Live and closed Kalshi positions with entry logic and P&L.
- [Stats](/stats): Overall trading performance, calibration curves, and edge analysis.
- [Directional stats](/stats/directional): Conviction-book metrics filtered to $100+ non-sports trades.
- [Research](/research): Research desk and experimental market-making bot index.
- [Research desk](/research/desk): Methodology and thesis-driven trade write-ups.
- [Market-making bot](/research/market-making): Notes and source for an alpha-stage liquidity bot.
- [About](/about): The analyst behind the Scoop.

## Blog

- [Short the Hormuz Normalization Markets](/blog/hormuz-normalization): Full thesis and resolved P&L on the Strait of Hormuz normalization trade.
- [Term Structure Trading](/blog/term-structure-trading): Rolling short-dated contracts vs single-leg long-dated contracts, with the rolling math, volatility curve, and side-by-side returns.